The Senate 2008 Guru shuffles on down to the People’s House and riffs off of Ben to provide this list of Republicans sitting in districts of R+5 or better who don’t have any announced or rumored challengers:
| District | PVI | Incumbent |
|---|---|---|
| NY-23 | R+0.2 | John McHugh |
| OH-12 | R+0.7 | Patrick Tiberi |
| MI-11 | R+1.2 | Thaddeus McCotter |
| MI-08 | R+1.9 | Mike Rogers |
| MI-06 | R+2.3 | Fred Upton |
| FL-07 | R+3 | John Mica |
| MI-04 | R+3 | Dave Camp |
| OH-03 | R+3 | Michael Turner |
| FL-18 | R+4 | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen |
| FL-25 | R+4 | Mario Diaz-Balart |
| MI-10 | R+4 | Candice Miller |
| FL-05 | R+5 | Ginny Browne-Waite |
| VA-05 | R+5 | Virgil Goode |
Obviously, the state of play in House races is always a moving target, as the Ramstad situation shows. And challengers often don’t announce until the year of the actual election. What’s more, this list doesn’t take into account the quality of the opposition in all the races which do have challengers (or potential challengers).
That said, there are still some interesting opportunities on the list. I hope someone steps forward to take on John McHugh, and not just because he sits in the most Dem-leaning district of this bunch, but also because NY is by far the bluest state here. I think next year, we could possibly return to Gore – or even Clinton – levels statewide in New York. Michigan also looks enticing, with five opportunities under R+5.
So, have you heard any rumors at all about any of these seats? Any speculation or recruitment ideas? Let’s hear it.
Those South Florida districts could be ripening, with the polls showing a shift among the younger Cuban-Americans away from the Repub party of their fathers and grandfathers. I hope the DCCC has someone nosing around to sniff out the opportunities in the Miami area.
Jeebus…
Virgil Goode actually has a few challengers. Check out the Race Tracker Wiki for more details.
According to someone in the OpenLeft comments section, one of the challengers, Dave Shreve, actually had a fundraiser hosted by Mark Warner recently.
McHugh’s district is only R +0.2? I had thought the Watertown district was a lot more conservative than that. Anybody have any explanation for this, some quirk of how PVIs are calculated or something?